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Jun 27 2018

Assessing Media Coverage of the US-China Trade War

Policy Briefing Series: Assessing Media Coverage of the US-China Trade War

Speaker: Phillip Yin, Managing Director of Newsroom Investments

On June 20, 2018, the Washington State China Relations Council convened this year’s fifth session of the Policy Briefing Series with a presentation from Phillip Yin in Seattle, WA. An experienced strategist, portfolio manager and global journalist, Mr. Yin has anchored for major US and China-based news networks including CNBC, Bloomberg News and CGTN America. Mr. Yin utilized his insider’s perspective on news media to assess the influence of current media trends and narratives on perceptions of the US-China trade crisis.

Mr. Yin explained that in his experience, the importance of maintaining a balanced business perspective in the US-China trade dialogue cannot be overstated. “Business people from both China and the US need to speak up, do business together, and clarify the facts.” While Yin noted that the inflammatory rhetoric employed by media is extremely effective in swaying public opinion, he believes that a strong voice from business leaders who rely on factually grounded data will eventually change the tide of public perception on both sides of the border.

Summary Author: Trudy Boothman

Jun 14 2018

Washington State SMBs to Exhibit at China International Import Expo (CIIE) under “Choose Washington” Brand

Washington State Commerce Department and the Washington State China Relations Council jointly held a press conference to announce Washington small and midsized businesses (SMBs) to exhibit at the first-ever China International Import Expo (CIIE).

SEATTLE – June 13, 2018 – Washington State Commerce Department (“Commerce”) and the Washington State China Relations Council (“WSCRC”) announced on Wednesday that about 20 small and medium businesses from Washington State will exhibit at the first China International Import Expo (“CIIE”) in Shanghai, November 5-10. With the support of WSCRC and its member company Pacific Technologies Consulting Group (“PTCG”), Commerce has marketed CIIE, organized a delegation to attend, and offered the Export Voucher which assists small business owners by offsetting the cost of attending CIIE. This is the first time that Washington State has organized SMBs to attend an Expo event in China.

CIIE is slated to be the largest import trade show in China. CIIE announced that as of June 1, 2018, over 1,300 companies from more than 120 countries and regions had already registered to attend CIIE. It is estimated that up to 150,000 professional buyers from both China and abroad will participate in the Expo.

The CIIE was announced by China’s President Xi Jinping in 2017 and is hosted by the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China and Shanghai Municipal People’s Government. CIIE is additionally receiving support from the World Trade Organization, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization. The Expo affirms China’s resolve to display its commitment to inclusive globalization as well as its eagerness to further open its market to foreign traders.

The Washington State Commerce Department has chosen to leverage the opportunity for global exposure afforded by attendance to the CIIE. Washington businesses will exhibit together under the Commerce Department’s “Choose Washington” in order to attract increased attention, traffic and awareness of the many exports the region has to offer. Together with WSCRC, and with the support of PTCG and multiple local Chinese American organizations, Commerce has led the effort to communicate the strategic potential that attendance to CIIE offers to businesses. In order to simplify registration for attendance to CIIE, Commerce has facilitated a sign up process exclusively for WA businesses who plan to attend as part of the delegation.

The June 13 press conference was held at the Nan Hai USA office in Kirkland. Seattle local media, CIIE event service representatives from Shanghai and WA exhibitors attended the event. Victor Chan, WSCRC Board Director, welcomed attendees and shared a brief history of Washington’s connection to China and how WSCRC has served as a bridge between Washington state and China since 1979. Commerce Assistant Director Chris Green emphasized that Washington ranks as one of the nation’s most trade-dependent states, with China is as a major market for Washington exports. Green believes that CIIE will be a great opportunity for Washington companies to make business deals and sign contracts. Green further explained Commerce’s CIIE exhibition plans and the process of offsetting attendance costs through the Export Voucher program.

Andy Cheung, CEO of Donghao International (“DHI”), co-organizer for CIIE’s High-end Intelligent Equipment Show, represented CIIE at the press conference. Cheung explained the significance of CIIE, the process of attending CIIE, and tips for a successful exhibit. Michelle Zou, WSCRC Board Director and CEO PTCG, facilitated the press conference with over 60 attendees.

About Washington State China Relations Council (WSCRC)

Founded in 1979, Washington State China Relations Council is the nation’s leading statewide organization dedicated to promoting stronger commercial, educational and cultural engagement with China. http://wscrc.org/

About Pacific Technologies Consulting Group (PTCG)

PTCG is a strategic consulting firm that helps companies seize US-China opportunities and grow business in today’s rapidly evolving business environment. It specializes in helping American companies enter into the China market and vice versa. http://www.ptcgconsulting.com/

May 17 2018

Lifelong Leadership: Assessing President Xi Jinping’s Power Consolidation

On May 14, 2018, WSCRC welcomed Dr. Victor Shih to this year’s fourth installment of the Policy Briefing Series. Shih is an associate professor of political economy at the University of California, San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. Following up on his November 2017 briefing which assessed outcomes of China’s 19th Party Congress, Dr. Shih provided insight into implications of President Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power.

In March 2018, China’s state constitution was officially amended, making it illegal for Xi to be voted out of office. “Everything points to Xi serving for life,” Shih explained, and with many of Xi’s Zhejiang “clique” being promoted to the Politburo, Xi will “dominate the Politburo Standing Committee in the near future,” with a few more key promotions.

Though Xi initially lost followers subsequent to the anti-corruption campaigns of his first term, the outcomes of the 19th Party Congress proved that his shrewd strategic planning and positioning were ultimately successful. “Xi has been able to concentrate a lot of power in his hands,” Shih continued. This consolidation of power is demonstrated clearly in the immense restructuring of the central government’s ministerial system into a series of CCP commissions which will assert greater control over every policy area at the central, provincial, and local levels and most of which are helmed by Xi himself.

Xi’s tremendous consolidation of power also carries implications for the current US-China trade dispute. “Because of Xi’s almost limitless power,” Shih elucidated, “he has great latitude to negotiate. To the extent that they do not fundamentally undermine the ‘China Dream,’ Xi will happily make concessions.” In Shih’s view, President Trump’s resent statement regarding the softening of penalties on Chinese tech company ZTE is likely a signal to China that the US is still open to negotiation. Likewise, Shih foresees that Xi will find peaceful and harmless ways to reduce the trade deficit while avoiding concessions on real sticking points such as tech transfer policy, leaving these critical questions unresolved.

Summary Author: Trudy Boothman

Apr 30 2018

ECONOMIC OBSERVER INTERVIEWS WSCRC

Chinese-language financial newspaper Economic Observer interviews WSCRC Chair Andy Wilson and Board Member Dean Jones on impact of China tariffs on Washington State.

View original publication from the Economic Observer here.

经济观察网记者张文扬美东时间4月5日，美国总统特朗普指示美国贸易代表办公室依据“301调查”，考虑对从中国进口的额外1000亿美元商品加征关税是否合适。这一行动在当天得到了美国贸易代表办公室的肯定性支持。加征关税的具体商品目前并未给出。

这一突发消息令市场反应激烈。美股期货、国际油价等急跌，金价则攀升突破1330美元/盎司关口。

北京时间4月6日中午，商务部新闻发言人应媒体询问时再次坚定了立场：“我们不想打，但不怕打贸易战”。他说：“中方将奉陪到底，不惜付出任何代价，必定予以坚决回击，必定采取新的综合应对措施，坚决捍卫国家和人民的利益”。

中美在贸易天平上不断加码的时刻，人们也许还关注，特朗普的“1000亿”中还将涉及哪些领域？中方还将出哪些牌去反制特朗普的“1000亿”？

人们或许还会问，中国的改革开放进程会因此受阻吗？商务部发言人在4月6日的谈话中说：“中方将继续扩大改革开放，维护多边贸易体制，推动全球贸易投资自由化和便利化。”

美方加征1000亿美元关税

特朗普在4月5日美国白宫发表的声明中称：“鉴于中国的不公平报复，我已指示美国贸易代表考虑，根据第301条，增加1000亿美元的关税是否适当，如果适当，则应确定征收这些关税的产品。我还指示农业部长在我的内阁其他成员支持下，利用其广泛权力，执行一项保护我国农民和农业利益的计划。”

对于特朗普这一额外的301条款行动，美国贸易代表莱特希泽在4月5日的声明中表示了支持。在美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）网站上的声明中，莱特希泽称，“中国选择对美国出口的数十亿美元(包括我们的农产品)征收不合理的关税。这些措施无疑会对美国工人、农民和企业造成进一步的伤害。在这种情况下，总统要求采取进一步的适当行动，以消除USTR报告中所确定的不公平的行为、政策和做法，是正确的。”

目前，美方并没有公布详细的加征关税名单。据USTR信息，提议的任何额外关税都将在2018年4月3日公布的征收关税的情况下进行类似的公开评论。在相关程序完成之前，不征收关税。

据彭博社报道，一名白宫官员在稍后表示，特朗普在声明中使用的1000亿美元的数字是指将被追加关税的进口商品的价值，而不是将对商品征税的总额。

北京金诚同达律师事务所律师杨晨对经济观察网指出，从美国上一轮公布的拟征税产品范围就可以看出，中国对美国的出口，产业比较分散。再追加1000亿美元商品的关税，中国对美国出口的产品1/3多都被覆盖了，很难想象会集中在哪些领域，但根据中国对美国近两年的出口情况，可能电子产品受到的冲击会大一些。

并不是所有来自华盛顿的声音都对征税表示认同。华盛顿州中国关系委员会主席Andy Wilson在4月5日对经济观察网说：“多次的例子证明，贸易战争伤害了各方——增加了中国和美国消费者的价格，并增加了许多公司的成本和供应链问题。解决当前形势的办法不是增加双方的关税，而是要在两个市场上对所有公司平等参与和参与的诚实谈判。”

中国回应：将采取新的综合应对措施

所谓的“1000亿美元商品征税”，是继美东时间4月3日，美国对中国约 500 亿美元商品公布对华 301 调查征税建议清单后，再次亮出的砝码。这也意味着贸易战进入了第二回合。

北京会继续亮牌吗？商务部新闻发言人在4月6日表示，如果美方不顾中方和国际社会反对，坚持搞单边主义和贸易保护主义行径，中方将奉陪到底，不惜付出任何代价，必定予以坚决回击，必定采取新的综合应对措施，坚决捍卫国家和人民的利益。

对于美国的单边行动和贸易保护主义，中国从未停止反击的脚步，并依据WTO争端解决程序予以反击。4月4日，中国就美国对华301调查项下征税建议在世贸组织争端解决机制下提起磋商请求，正式启动世贸组织争端解决程序。4月5日，中国就美国进口钢铁和铝产品232措施，在世贸组织争端解决机制项下向美方提出磋商请求，正式启动争端解决程序。

问题在于，4月4日北京宣布对美国的大豆、棉花等农产品、汽车、化工品、飞机等500亿美元的进口商品征税25%后，还能出手哪些牌？

目前，从反制裁的方面看，中国政府目前并没有发动汽车飞机大型制造业领域制裁。华盛顿州中国关系委员会的成员Dean Jones的个人看法是，目前中国对波音飞机的关税仅限于较小的飞机，而对其他飞机征收更大的关税，可能为其竞争对手“空客”提供巨大优势

服务贸易成为关注的焦点之一。北京大学国家发展研究院副院长余淼杰的观点是，有可能通过限制美国服务贸易对华出口的方式来应对贸易制裁。他认为，美国服务贸易出口增加本国就业岗位、减少收入差距，美国服务业企业在华获得丰厚收益。如果贸易摩擦升级，美国服务贸易对华出口受挫，美方得不偿失。

在服务贸易方面，美国对华长期保持着巨额顺差，仅2016年美国对华服务贸易顺差就高达557亿美元。据商务部信息，2006年至2016年，中美服务贸易总额增长3.3倍，而逆差增长33.7倍。

中美博弈，改革开放将继续

早在4月4日，商务部副部长王受文在国新办的新闻发布会上就指出，特朗普总统早前在推特中提出“希望中方每年减少一千亿美元的对美顺差”的这一言论，“是绝对不能接受的”。王受文说：“贸易顺差逆差，是市场力量决定的，是由美国整体经济政策、经济结构来决定的，中方一家是减不了顺差的。”

王受文说：“如果我们深入分析中美贸易顺差或者逆差的数字，如果考虑统计的原因，考虑转口贸易的原因，考虑服务贸易的原因，中美贸易的顺差实际上只有美方公布逆差的三分之一，并不那么大。” 据美国商务部2月6日公布数据，2017年美国对华货物贸易逆差约3752亿美元。此外，中美贸易统计也存在差异。据中国和美国统计工作组测算，美国官方统计的对华贸易逆差每年都被高估20%左右。

Andy Wilson说：“中美讨论的焦点不应该是商品贸易逆差的价值——这不是一种有用的经济措施，包括当今复杂的供应链和数字/服务经济。相反，谈判的重点应该是一项新的双边投资条约(BIT)，将两国平等地对待，因此在这两个市场上给予商业投资和经营的平等机会。”

中国的改革开放进程会因此受阻吗？商务部发言人在4月6日的谈话中说：“中方将继续扩大改革开放，维护多边贸易体制，推动全球贸易投资自由化和便利化。”

对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院教授、中国世界贸易组织研究会副秘书长、研究部主任崔凡对经济观察网指出，要在坚持扩大开放中对美实施对等反制，要争取不能让它对我们打造全面开放新格局的国策造成太大影响。

如何在积极主动开放的过程中实施报复呢？崔凡建议道，中国政府已经宣布了的金融业包括银行、证券、保险要扩大开放，专用汽车和新能源汽车在2018年6月份之前在自贸区要开放，汽车的关税要逐步下降，这些进程都不能因为美方的行为而停止。但是，如果美方对中方实施歧视性措施了，这些开放措施可以暂时不对其实施。比如，汽车降低关税，但是一旦美国对我国实施歧视性关税，降低的部分即不对美国实施；其他国家和地区在自贸区里开办新能源汽车的独资公司，中方欢迎；但是如果美方实施对中方的歧视，中方就暂时不允许它进入。这样的好处在于，一是能够在困难中继续开放，二是能够在现有领域增加报复砝码从而尽量不扩散到其他领域，三是有利于团结没有对我国实施歧视政策的国家和地区。

Apr 30 2018

US-China-Japan Trade Relations in the New World Order

On March 1, 2018, WSCRC partnered with the Japan America Society of the State of Washington and the Northwest Seaport Alliance to convene an expert panel for a conversation on, “US-China-Japan Trade Relations in the New World Order” at the Port of Seattle.

In opening remarks, Consul General of Japan in Seattle Yoichiro Yamada emphasized the historical role of the US in promoting free trade and his hope that this commitment will continue to shape US policy. Nor Coquillard, former president of Cargill Japan and Cargill China, noted that the US’ lack of clear strategy in the agricultural sector puts states like Washington at a disadvantage. Despite being China’s primary import source for agriculture products, US leverage in this sector is limited as other countries such as Chile and Australia have been promoting their goods through Free Trade Agreements.

Brown & Haley president and COO John Melin shed light on the practical approach which has led to the success of this small-midsized company which now exports 40% of its output, which includes Almond Roca. Brown & Haley, a Tacoma-based company and WSCRC member, has strategically focused effort on the Chinese market, particularly in e-commerce. “Washington State has a remarkable brand in Asia. We need to take ownership over this collective brand, wear it on our sleeve and reinforce it,” Melin encouraged, “It’s a lot easier to gain ground in a market that’s growing, and China offers huge opportunities.”

Tom Robertson, Vice President and Deputy General Counsel for Microsoft, discussed the importance of having proper representation from all sizes of companies when policy rules are being made and trade precedents are being determined. In Robertson’s opinion, privacy, cybersecurity, and intellectual property are areas where trade disciplines need to be modernized. Robertson concurred with WCIT president Lori Otto-Punke that educating local and state officials in trade policy is vitally important.

Port commissioners Ryan Calkins and Clare Petrich reaffirmed their commitment to advocating free and fair trade with China and Japan.

Special thanks to the Port of Seattle for hosting the event.

Summary author: Trudy Boothman

Assessing Media Coverage of the US-China Trade War

Washington State SMBs to Exhibit at China International Import Expo (CIIE) under “Choose Washington” Brand

Lifelong Leadership: Assessing President Xi Jinping’s Power Consolidation

ECONOMIC OBSERVER INTERVIEWS WSCRC

US-China-Japan Trade Relations in the New World Order

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