trade war Archives

Sep 06 2019

WSCRC Co-hosts Dialogue on US-China Trade Policy

WSCRC along with Davis Wright Tremaine and the UW School of Law Global Business Law Institute hosted a dialogue about US China trade on September 6^th, 2019.

Representative Rick Larsen (Dem. 2nd District) and Dr. Lisa Brown, Director of Commerce for Washington State, provided comments and then engaged in a discussion moderated by former Ambassador to China Gary Locke. Director Brown outlined the importance of trade with China to Washington’s economy and noted that the State will soon send a trade delegation to China. Representative Larsen commented that there is a consensus in the Congress about what’s wrong with the US-China trade relationship but there is currently no coherent strategy to address the problems.

After a series of probing questions posed by Ambassador Locke, a lively Q and A concluded the session.

Oct 15 2018

Book Talk with Benjamin Shobert, Author of Blaming China: It Might Feel Good But Won’t Fix America’s Economy

On October 11, 2018, the Washington State China Relations Council held the ninth session of the Policy Briefing Series featuring Benjamin Shobert, author of Blaming China: It Might Feel Good But Won’t Fix America’s Economy. In the book, Benjamin described American society as angrier, more fragmented, and more polarized than at any time since the Civil War. He identified deep insecurities about our economic future, our place in the world, our response to terrorism, and our deeply dysfunctional government as contributing to current trade tensions between the US and China. Benjamin is the Managing Director of Rubicon Strategy Group. He is also a Senior Associate for International Health at NBR, where he advises and contributes to NBR research programs on international health in Asia.

Benjamin argued that unless we address an array of domestic issues in the United States, a disastrous chapter in American life is right around the corner. Reflecting on the state of US-China affairs in the present day, Benjamin expressed concern that many Americans may decide that conflict with China is an avenue to secure their economic futures. After framing how the American public thinks about China, Benjamin offered two alternative paths forward. He also proposed steps that businesses, governments, and individuals can take to potentially stop and reverse America’s path to worsening relations with China.

Addressing concerns regarding globalization’s impact on the American economy, Benjamin emphasized that the US-China relationship matters because it has historically benefitted both countries. Citing examples from the twentieth century, Benjamin questioned whether commonly held assumptions such as the inevitability of peace, inter-connectivity breeding mutual reliance, and the folly of war prove applicable in assessing the US-China relationship. He explained how many of the issues raised during President Trump’s 2016 campaign, particularly national anxiety about a rising China, are misplaced. According to the book, China has become an easy target for Americans to project their frustrations with the overall political dysfunction, economic difficulties, and foreign policy blunders since 9/11, much of which in fact has more to do with domestic problems in the United States than with China.

A lively Q&A session followed Benjamin’s book talk. Questions from attendees addressed the possible policy implications following a US-China trade war, as well as the implications of further tariffs issued on imported goods from China. During Q&A, Benjamin cited his own experience traveling to China for the first time early in his career and his own learning process in the field.

WSCRC extends thanks to WSCRC Pearl Member Spencer Cohen for serving as moderator for the event.

Summary author: Mengyao Liu

Oct 10 2018

NCUSCR CHINA Town Hall

On October 9, 2018, the Washington State China Relations Council, in partnership with the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, held the annual CHINA Town Hall featuring speakers former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as national webcast speaker and local speaker Andrew Batson, China Research Director at Gavekal Dragonomics, an independent economic research firm with offices in Hong Kong and Beijing. CHINA Town Hall is a national conversation about China that provides Americans across the United States and beyond the opportunity to discuss issues in the relationship with leading experts. It took place at 100+ venues across the United States and Greater China.

Condoleezza Rice served as the 66th Secretary of State of the United States, the second woman and first African American woman to hold the post. During the interactive webcast discussion moderated by Stephen A. Orlins, President of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, she spoke about her personal experience working in China as the Secretary of State under President George W. Bush. She highlighted the benefits of free and open trade with China, including economic growth, increased innovation, and enhanced exchange under a rules-based system. In answering a question about the current trade tensions between the United States and China, she emphasized in importance in reciprocity. Speaking about her own experience with the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations at the beginning of her career, she noted that NCUSCR was pivotal in shaping her understanding of China.

Andrew Batson’s presentation focused on the future of economic ties between China and the United States. Assessing the aims of President Trump’s administration in issuing tariffs and heightening trade tensions between the two nations, Andrew noted that volatility in the Chinese economy began to occur before the tariffs were announced. According to his research, exports remain a large portion of China’s economy, but their market dominance is declining. He pointed to similarities between the American and Chinese economies in that they are both dependent on domestic demand, as opposed to exports. In his concluding remarks, Andrew stated that if the trade war is a negotiating tactic, it is not likely to succeed. But increasingly, it appears to be an opening move in a long-term strategy to disengage the economics of the United States and China.

A spirited Q&A session followed Andrew’s presentation. Questions from attendees addressed how the trade conflict will affect business in both the United States and China, as well as implications for the Belt and Road Initiative. Andrew drew from his extensive research on the Chinese economy and detailed his projections by industry, discussing tech, agriculture, and consumer goods.

WSCRC extends thanks to WSCRC board member Sean Connell for serving as a moderator for the event and for WSCRC board member Nelson Dong at Dorsey & Whitney LLP for providing the venue.

Summary author: Mengyao Liu

Oct 02 2018

Policy Briefing Series — US-China Trade War: Get the Facts

On September 20, 2018, WSCRC hosted a roundtable discussion led by two locally based experts on international trade and the current U.S.-China tariff war—Robert Hamilton, Washington state trade advisor, and Andrew Batson, Director of China Research at Gavekal Dragonomics.

Robert Hamilton emphasized the importance of properly understanding and interpreting trade data when assessing the potential impacts of the current dispute on Washington’s economy. Several major exports included in China’s tariff list are inaccurately credited to Washington, such as soybeans (grown in the Midwest and only consolidated in Washington) and passenger vehicles. Correcting for these anomalies, an estimated $800 million in Washington state goods are directly subject to Chinese tariffs invoked within the last year, including wheat, cherries, and other agriculture products and processed foods. It should be noted, however, that at the time of this presentation these estimates were based on the most recent list of enacted tariffs, and thus exclude the latest round implemented on September 24. He also highlighted the intense efforts, over many years, to develop an export market in China for Washington state agricultural products; these markets could be irrevocably harmed by a prolonged trade war.

Although China, as a net exporter with the U.S., has less imports to apply tariffs to, Mr. Hamilton pointed to several non-tariff retaliatory actions available to the Chinese government with deleterious impacts on Washington. These include challenging Washington state solar subsidy programs at the WTO and restricting the export of important manufacturing inputs, such as polysilicon used by REC Silicon operations in Moses Lake.

According to Mr. Batson, Trump Administration objectives are to impose enough pain through tariffs to force China to change its current industrial and market access policies. However, it remains unclear how much pain China is able or willing to endure. Indicators on the impact of the trade conflict on the Chinese economy are mixed. Unlike in the U.S., the Chinese stock market has been down this year, but property markets have remained strong. The RMB has also depreciated 5% since the start of the year (and 8% from a recent high vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar), helping to partially offset the impact of tariffs. Moreover, China’s exports have been decelerating for quite a while, well in advance of U.S. tariffs, making it difficult to separate the effect of U.S. tariffs from broader structural shifts preceding the current dispute.

Longer term, it remains unclear what the Trump Administration’s exit strategy. The invocation of Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act was intended to be used in unique circumstances to impose penalties on trade partners with most-favored-nation (MFN) status. When China ascended the WTO in 2001, it concomitantly gained MFN status on a permanent basis with the U.S., thereby removing U.S. leverage to review and potentially deny renewal of MFN status on an annual basis. The Trump Administration’s usage of Section 301 is interpreted by some to represent an effort to undermine China’s MFN status.

Summary Author: Spencer Cohen

Jun 27 2018

Assessing Media Coverage of the US-China Trade War

Policy Briefing Series: Assessing Media Coverage of the US-China Trade War

Speaker: Phillip Yin, Managing Director of Newsroom Investments

On June 20, 2018, the Washington State China Relations Council convened this year’s fifth session of the Policy Briefing Series with a presentation from Phillip Yin in Seattle, WA. An experienced strategist, portfolio manager and global journalist, Mr. Yin has anchored for major US and China-based news networks including CNBC, Bloomberg News and CGTN America. Mr. Yin utilized his insider’s perspective on news media to assess the influence of current media trends and narratives on perceptions of the US-China trade crisis.

Mr. Yin explained that in his experience, the importance of maintaining a balanced business perspective in the US-China trade dialogue cannot be overstated. “Business people from both China and the US need to speak up, do business together, and clarify the facts.” While Yin noted that the inflammatory rhetoric employed by media is extremely effective in swaying public opinion, he believes that a strong voice from business leaders who rely on factually grounded data will eventually change the tide of public perception on both sides of the border.

Summary Author: Trudy Boothman

WSCRC Co-hosts Dialogue on US-China Trade Policy

Book Talk with Benjamin Shobert, Author of Blaming China: It Might Feel Good But Won’t Fix America’s Economy

NCUSCR CHINA Town Hall

Policy Briefing Series — US-China Trade War: Get the Facts

Assessing Media Coverage of the US-China Trade War

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